Canada Lost at Least $152 billions of Economic Activity Due to the Pandemic

GDP levels had already recovered to pre-pandemic levels when coercive vaccine mandates were introduced

The government measures in response to the declaration of the pandemic caused a drop in the level of economic activity as measured by the GDP (gross domestic product).  By drawing trendlines over the GDP data we can estimate what the economic levels would have been without the government covid-19 measures.  Conceptually it looks like the following chart. 

By measuring the area between the trendline and the actual GDP data we can estimate the economic loss in terms of GDP.  The GDP losses is simply the difference between the trendline GDP in green, had there been no pandemic, and the measured GDP, in orange.

The above chart also demonstrates that by Q4 2021, the Canadian economy had fully recovered back to its pre-pandemic trajectory and that the vaccine mandates were unnecessary.  Just like I showed, using employment and unemployment data, in the Coercive Vaccine Mandates Were Predicated on Economic False Pretences post that the Truckers were right, the GDP data also vindicates the Truckers.

The choice of trendlines is arbitrary and slightly affects the result.  I used four trendlines over the GDP data to obtain and demonstrate a robust estimate.  In all four trendlines, the measured GDP data is below each of the four trendlines from Q1 2020 until Q3 2021. The GDP data is from Statistics Canada¹ expressed in 2017 market prices adjusted to 2022 market prices.²

Here’s how this $152 billion economic loss is shared by each province:

In terms of 2022 market prices level, the federal and provincial governments covid-19 measures caused at least $151,7 billions of economic damages.

In my pipeline of posts are personal injury, wrongful death and aggravated assault damage low-ball estimates. I believe the various legal challenges against covid government measures are not failing for lack of merit, but because if government covid measures were recognized to be groundless, massive damages would also be recognized by ensuing lawsuits and would bankrupt the country.

The best path forward is to unite our divided society by not bickering over what happened or what was right or wrong to do with the pandemic, but to recognized that a massive web of malfeasance (the Swamp) is at play and that we should demand the most draconian, aggressive and merciless anti-corruption measures.

1. Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterly (x 1,000,000)

2. Gross domestic product price indexes, annual (2017=100)